On April 17, 2026, Executive Director Joanne Kilgour submitted a version of the following comment to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection regarding Shell Polymers Monaca’s Air Quality Plan Approval Application [PA-04-00740D] on behalf of the Ohio River Valley Institute.
During the recent public hearing on Shell’s air quality plan approval application, held April 7, 2026, several commenters provided testimony in support of the application and the facility as a whole based on the purported economic benefit of the Shell Polymers Monaca site, much of which was anecdotal and not substantiated by data. To help ensure that Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s assessment of the plan approval application is informed by what the data show about the economic impact of the Shell Polymers Monaca site, the Ohio River Valley Institute offers the following research findings for the record:
- After receiving one of the largest tax incentive packages in Pennsylvania history, Shell has failed to deliver on promises of jobs and downstream growth. Since Shell’s ethane cracker project was announced in 2012, Beaver County has seen inflation-adjusted GDP contract by 12%, population decline by 3%, and employment fall more than 13% despite growth nationally and statewide. Shell’s claim that the plant would be an economic “windfall,” echoed by policymakers and substantiated by company-funded economic impact studies, has failed to materialize.
- In an analysis conducted in 2023, our research identified that since 2012, Beaver County: lost GDP as the state and the country experienced strong, consistent growth; lost population while Pennsylvania maintained residents and the US grew steadily; trailed the state and the nation in job growth, even when factoring in all the temporary construction workers at the Shell site; saw poverty fall at a slower rate than state and national averages; saw its child poverty rate surpass the state’s and the country’s; grew income at the same rate as the state and the country, and lost businesses despite state and national growth.
- Not only is Beaver County, the home of the Shell Polymers Monaca site, lagging Pennsylvania and the rest of the United States across several key economic indicators, but it is underperforming neighboring counties as well, undercutting the argument that conditions might be worse but for the development of Shell’s ethane cracker plant. Per our analysis, “[n]ot only did the Shell plant fail to bring the promised economic boost to Beaver County, it appears the facility did little to help the county rebound after the pandemic. The county has not recovered from the pandemic to the same degree as neighboring counties in the region. In fact, Beaver County is the only county in western Pennsylvania of those surveyed to have lost jobs between 2020 and 2024…Federal business data tells a similar story. One of the central selling points pitched by Shell and its investors was that the petrochemical plant would spur a ‘windfall of economic opportunity’ in part because of the jobs and businesses generated as support industries moved in. In reality, the exact opposite has occurred. Beaver County lost businesses by every measure, according to the Census Bureau’s ‘Statistics of US Businesses.’ Since the Shell cracker plant was first announced in 2012 until 2022 [the most recent year for which data was available at the time of the analysis]…Beaver County lost nearly 100 business firms, businesses consisting of one or more domestic establishments.”
- Not only have the economic promises made to Beaver County failed to materialize, but the business case for the facility appears to be weak as well. Shell, reportedly seeking a partner or buyer, is unlikely to recoup its $14 billion petrochemical investment. The company faces a number of financial headwinds that have compressed margins and will likely deter prospective partners or buyers, including:
- Isolation from supply chains. Isolated “standalone” ethane crackers like Shell’s face a significant disadvantage compared to facilities located near developed supply chains, such as those along the Gulf Coast’s “petrochemical corridor.” These plants have connections to storage and other plants that can provide a buffer when operational upsets occur.
- A global supply glut. A “crisis” of global oversupply is continuing to pinch petrochemical producers. Shell Polymers Monaca launched at the tail end of the “chemicals supercycle,” a decades-long period of unprecedented petrochemical demand growth. The supercycle led to a massive overbuild of ethylene production capacity, tightening competition and narrowing petrochemical operators’ margins.
- The dissolution of the Appalachian ‘feedstock advantage.’ Producers of Appalachian ethane now have options. Shell targeted Appalachia for its petrochemicals complex shortly after the region’s fracking boom opened up a wealth of cheap ethane. Now, expanded access to other markets, rising data center demand, and increased LNG exports have moved Appalachian gas prices up. Gas and ethane are no longer “trapped” in a lower value market.
- Shell’s poor Q4 2025 financial performance underscores the financial risk of petrochemical development. Shell CEO Wael Sawan acknowledged a “downturn in Monaca” during the company’s Q4 2025 earnings call, referencing a long-term “pressdown of chemical margins.” Sawan offered no details on the reported search for a buyer or partner for the Monaca ethane cracker facility but noted “nothing is off the table” in the company’s commitment to reversing chemical sector cash flow trends. Shares slipped after disclosing chemicals sector losses and its weakest quarterly profit since early 2021.